Baccarat Probability Calculator
Exact odds and house edges for any table rules and any side bet.
Baccarat Probability Calculator
Baccarat's drawing rules are fixed, so every probability in the game can be worked out exactly for a given number of decks. Choose your table's rules and enter the payouts printed on its layout. The results update as you change them. The explanations behind the standard figures are on our Odds & Payouts page.
This calculates odds. It does not predict cards.
No tool, road or pattern can tell you what the next hand will be. After five Banker wins in a row, the chance of Banker on the next hand is the same as it was on the first. What can be known exactly is how often each result comes up over the long run and how much each bet costs, and that is what this page shows.
Set the Table Rules
Decks in the shoe
Tie bet pays
Banker bet rule
Results: 8 decks (416 cards), Banker 5% commission, Tie 8 to 1
Banker wins
45.86%
Player wins
44.62%
Tie
9.52%
| Bet | Pays | Wins | Fair payout | House edge | Expected loss on $1,000.00 wagered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 0.95 to 1 | 45.86% | not applicable (ties push) | 1.06% | $10.58 |
| Player | 1 to 1 | 44.62% | not applicable (ties push) | 1.24% | $12.35 |
| Tie | 8 to 1 | 9.52% | 9.51 to 1 | 14.36% | $143.60 |
Side bets
Payouts vary by studio and casino. The pre-filled values are ones we have read on an operator's or studio's own page, named beside each bet. Change any of them to what your table shows and the edge updates. A blank field means no page we have read publishes that payout.
Pair bets
| Bet | Wins when | Pays (edit) | Wins | Fair payout | House edge | Expected loss on $1,000.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player Pair | Player's first two cards are the same rank | Preset: Evolution pay table as published by LeoVegas (read Sep 22, 2026) | 7.47% (1 in 13.4) | 12.39 to 1 | 10.36% | $103.61 |
| Banker Pair | Banker's first two cards are the same rank | Preset: Evolution pay table as published by LeoVegas (read Sep 22, 2026) | 7.47% (1 in 13.4) | 12.39 to 1 | 10.36% | $103.61 |
| Either Pair | Either hand's first two cards are the same rank | Preset: Evolution pay table as published by LeoVegas (read Sep 22, 2026) | 14.38% (1 in 7.0) | 5.95 to 1 | 13.71% | $137.10 |
| Perfect PairImpossible with a single deck: there is only one copy of each card. | First two cards of a hand are identical in rank and suit | Preset: Evolution pay table as published by LeoVegas (read Sep 22, 2026) | 3.35% (1 in 29.9) | not a single price | 8.05% | $80.47 |
Banker 6 bets (No Commission and Super 6 tables)
| Bet | Wins when | Pays (edit) | Wins | Fair payout | House edge | Expected loss on $1,000.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super 6Some tables pay 12 to 1. Enter what your table shows. | Banker wins with a total of 6 | Preset: Evolution pay table as published by LeoVegas (read Sep 22, 2026), No Commission tables | 5.39% (1 in 18.6) | 17.57 to 1 | 13.82% | $138.18 |
EZ Baccarat bets
| Bet | Wins when | Pays (edit) | Wins | Fair payout | House edge | Expected loss on $1,000.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragon 7 | Banker wins with a three-card 7 | Preset: EZ Baccarat rules as published by Rivers Casino Philadelphia, Ocean Casino Resort and Live! Casino Virginia (read Sep 22, 2026) | 2.25% (1 in 44.4) | 43.38 to 1 | 7.61% | $76.11 |
| Panda 8 | Player wins with a three-card 8 | Preset: EZ Baccarat rules as published by Rivers Casino Philadelphia, Ocean Casino Resort and Live! Casino Virginia (read Sep 22, 2026) | 3.45% (1 in 28.9) | 27.95 to 1 | 10.19% | $101.88 |
Bonus bets (win by margin)
| Bet | Wins when | Pays (edit) | Wins | Fair payout | House edge | Expected loss on $1,000.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player Bonus (Dragon Bonus, Player)A natural tie pushes. | Player wins by a natural, or by four or more points | Preset: Evolution pay table as published by LeoVegas (read Sep 22, 2026) | 28.99% (1 in 3.4) | not a single price | 2.65% | $26.52 |
| Banker Bonus (Dragon Bonus, Banker)A natural tie pushes. | Banker wins by a natural, or by four or more points | Preset: Evolution pay table as published by LeoVegas (read Sep 22, 2026) | 28.28% (1 in 3.5) | not a single price | 9.37% | $93.73 |
Card-count bets
| Bet | Wins when | Pays (edit) | Wins | Fair payout | House edge | Expected loss on $1,000.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small | Exactly four cards are dealt in the round | Preset: no studio or operator page we have read publishes this payout; enter what your table shows | enter payout | |||
| Big | Five or six cards are dealt in the round | Preset: no studio or operator page we have read publishes this payout; enter what your table shows | enter payout |
Tiger and Dragon side bets (Dragon Tiger Baccarat and Tiger Baccarat layouts)
| Bet | Wins when | Pays (edit) | Wins | Fair payout | House edge | Expected loss on $1,000.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Tiger | Banker wins with a two-card 6 | Preset: Hoiana Resort & Golf rules page (read Sep 20, 2026) | 3.72% (1 in 26.8) | 25.85 to 1 | 14.33% | $143.33 |
| Big Tiger | Banker wins with a three-card 6 | Preset: Hoiana Resort & Golf rules page (read Sep 20, 2026) | 1.66% (1 in 60.2) | 59.18 to 1 | 15.25% | $152.53 |
| Tiger | Banker wins with a 6 (two payouts by card count) | Preset: Hoiana Resort & Golf rules page (read Sep 20, 2026) | 5.39% (1 in 18.6) | not a single price | 16.68% | $166.84 |
| Small Dragon | Player wins with a two-card 7 | Preset: Hoiana Resort & Golf rules page (read Sep 20, 2026) | 5.43% (1 in 18.4) | 17.40 to 1 | 13.05% | $130.45 |
| Big Dragon | Player wins with a three-card 7 | Preset: Hoiana Resort & Golf rules page (read Sep 20, 2026) | 2.73% (1 in 36.6) | 35.65 to 1 | 15.41% | $154.06 |
| Dragon Tiger (side bet) | Player's 7 beats Banker's 6 (three payouts by cards dealt) | Preset: Hoiana Resort & Golf rules page (read Sep 20, 2026) | 1.90% (1 in 52.7) | not a single price | 14.83% | $148.34 |
Expected loss is the long-run average: stake times rounds times house edge, assuming the same bet every round. Any single session will land above or below it. "Wins" counts hands on which the bet pays anything; pushes are excluded.
How the Numbers Are Computed
For each deck count from one to eight, every possible deal is enumerated card by card under the standard drawing rules: Player draws on 0 to 5 and stands on 6 and 7, naturals of 8 and 9 end the hand, and the Banker follows the fixed third-card table. Each outcome is weighted by its exact probability, which gives the chance of every result a bet can depend on: who won, both totals, how many cards were dealt, pairs, naturals and the winning margin. Suits, which only the Perfect Pair bet needs, are added arithmetically.
A bet's house edge is then its stake minus what it returns on average: the sum over winning outcomes of probability times payout, plus any pushes, minus the probability of losing. Changing a payout changes only that sum, which is why every field on this page recalculates instantly and exactly. Nothing is simulated or approximated.
The engine reproduces the standard eight-deck figures to four decimal places (Banker 1.0579%, Player 1.2351%, Tie 14.3596%) and, as an independent check, the return-to-player percentages that one studio's pay table is published with, for all six of its side bets, to the hundredth of a percent. The scripts are kept with the site's source so the figures can be reproduced.
What the Calculator Shows
- No commission costs more than commission. Paying half on a Banker win with 6 costs 2.69% of the stake on average; a 5% commission costs 2.29%. That is the whole gap between 1.06% and 1.46%.
- EZ Baccarat is the cheapest Banker rule, at 1.02%, because a three-card 7 is rarer than a 6 and pushing costs less than half-pay.
- A combined bet is dearer than its parts. The single Tiger bet costs more than Small Tiger and Big Tiger, which together cover exactly the same result.
- Long odds hide the price. Big Tiger's 50 to 1 looks generous against a fair payout near 59 to 1. The gap is the house edge.
- Fewer decks help some bets and hurt others. Pairs get likelier with more decks, so their edge falls as decks are added; the Tie edge moves the other way.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the baccarat house edge calculated?
Every possible deal is enumerated for the chosen number of decks under the standard drawing rules, which gives the exact probability of each outcome. The house edge of a bet is its stake minus what it returns on average: the sum over winning outcomes of probability times payout, plus pushes, minus the losing probability. This calculator does that sum for the payouts you enter.
Does the number of decks change baccarat odds?
Slightly. With eight decks Banker wins 45.86% of resolved and tied hands, Player 44.62% and Tie 9.52%, for house edges of 1.06%, 1.24% and 14.36%. With six decks the Tie edge rises to 14.44% and the Pair bets to 11.25%, because a pair is likelier the more copies of each rank the shoe holds. Pick the deck count above and the figures update.
Is no commission baccarat better than 5% commission?
No. Paying 1 to 2 on a Banker win with 6 costs 2.69% of the stake on average, against 2.29% for a 5% commission, so the Banker edge rises from 1.06% to 1.46% with eight decks. EZ Baccarat, where a Banker win with a three-card 7 pushes instead, costs 1.02%.
Which baccarat side bet has the lowest house edge?
Of the side bets on this page at their published payouts, the Player Bonus is the cheapest at 2.65% and the Dragon 7 the next at 7.61%. The Pair bets cost 10.36%, the Tie 14.36% and the Tiger bets 14% to 17%. All of them cost many times more than the main bets, which cost 1.06% to 1.46%.
Can this calculator predict the next baccarat hand?
No. It calculates how often each result comes up over the long run and what each bet costs. No tool, pattern or road can tell you what the next hand will be: after five Banker wins in a row the chance of Banker on the next hand is the same as it was on the first.
Payout presets: Evolution's live baccarat pay table as published by LeoVegas (Pairs 11 to 1, Perfect Pair 25 and 200 to 1, Either Pair 5 to 1, Super 6 15 to 1, Player and Banker Bonus table), read September 22, 2026; Hoiana Resort & Golf's Dragon Tiger Baccarat and Tiger Baccarat rules pages, read September 20, 2026; EZ Baccarat rules as published by Rivers Casino Philadelphia, Ocean Casino Resort and Live! Casino Virginia, read September 22, 2026. Your table may differ; the figures follow whatever you enter.