Macau Revenue Slips for a Fourth Month in September 2026, Yet the Year Is Still Ahead of 2025

Macau's casinos won MOP18.06 billion in September 2026, 1.2% less than a year earlier and the lowest monthly total of the year, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. It is the fourth consecutive month below 2025, and it closes a third quarter that was 3.8% down on the same quarter last year. The first nine months of 2026 are still 3.2% ahead.

The Smallest Month of 2026

September is a quiet month in Macau in most years, sitting between the summer holidays and the October Golden Week, and 2026 followed the pattern. The MOP18,063 million won across the territory's casinos was lower than any other month this year, including June's MOP18,522 million, and it was MOP226 million short of September 2025.

The decline itself was small. What makes the month notable is the run it extends. After five months of growth to open the year, with January up 24.0% and March up 15.0%, Macau's revenue has now fallen short of the prior year in June, July, August and September. The size of the shortfall has narrowed each month, from 12.1% in June to 1.2% in August and again in September, so the trend is toward stabilization rather than acceleration. But four months in a row is a run the year had not seen, and the third quarter as a whole came in at MOP60,214 million, 3.8% below the MOP62,570 million won in the third quarter of 2025.

What the Year Still Has in Hand

The strong first half means 2026 remains ahead. Revenue for January through September was MOP187,116 million, up 3.2% on the MOP181,341 million of the same period in 2025, a year that finished at MOP247,404 million, the highest total since 2019. The gap has closed steadily: the year was 14.3% ahead after March, 6.8% ahead after June and 3.2% ahead after September.

A little arithmetic shows what the fourth quarter has to do. To match 2025's full-year total, the final three months of 2026 need MOP60,288 million, against the MOP66,063 million won in the fourth quarter of 2025. In other words, the year still beats 2025 unless the fourth quarter falls by more than 8.7%, a steeper decline than any quarter has recorded this year. The October Golden Week, which set visitor-arrival records this year, is the first test; the DICJ publishes October's figure on November 1.

Where Baccarat Stands

The DICJ's monthly release is a single figure for all games of fortune. The breakdown by game comes quarterly, about two weeks after each quarter ends, and the third quarter's table was not yet published when this article was written. The most recent quarter available, April to June 2026, puts baccarat at MOP51,069 million of the MOP61,028 million won from games of fortune: 83.7% of the total, with VIP baccarat contributing MOP15,901 million and mass-market baccarat MOP35,168 million. That share has held between 83.7% and 85.6% in every quarter since the start of 2023, so the September decline is, for practical purposes, a decline in baccarat.

When the DICJ posts the third-quarter table, our Baccarat Revenue Tracker will carry the new quarter, including the split between VIP and mass play, alongside the Nevada figures.